Guesstimate




For the 2009 BBC (UK) TV series, see Guesstimation (game show).

Guesstimate is an informal English portmanteau of guess and estimate, first used by American statisticians in 1934[1] or 1935.[2] It is defined as an estimate made without using adequate or complete information,[3][4] or, more strongly, as an estimate arrived at by guesswork or conjecture.[2][5][6] Like the words estimate and guess, guesstimate may be used as a verb or a noun (with the same change in pronunciation as estimate). A guesstimate may be a first rough approximation pending a more accurate estimate, or it may be an educated guess at something for which no better information will become available.


The word may be used in a pejorative sense if information for a better estimate is available but ignored.[7][8]


Guesstimation techniques are used:



  • in physics, where the use of guesstimation techniques to solve Fermi problems is taught as a useful skill to science students.[9]

  • in cosmology, where the Drake equation is a well-known guesstimation method.[10]

  • in economics, where economic forecasts and statistics are often based on guesstimates.[11]

  • in software engineering, where new development of features and release timelines are based on effort guesstimates of tasks.


Lawrence Weinstein and John Adam's book Guesstimation: Solving the World's Problems on the Back of a Cocktail Napkin, based on the course "Physics on the Back of an Envelope" at Old Dominion University, promotes guesstimation techniques as a useful life skill. It includes many worked examples of guesstimation, including the following problems:


  • How many total miles do Americans drive in a year?

Answer: about 2 trillion (2x1012).[12]

  • How much high-level nuclear waste does a 1 GW nuclear power plant produce in a year?

Answer: about 60 tons.[13]


See also



  • Ansatz

  • Back-of-the-envelope calculation

  • Heuristic

  • Scientific wild-ass guess



References









  1. ^ guess Online Etymological Dictionary


  2. ^ ab guesstimate Dictionary.com Unabridged (v 1.1)


  3. ^ guesstimate Merriam-Webster On-line Dictionary


  4. ^ guesstimate MSN Encarta Dictionary. Archived 2009-10-31.


  5. ^ guesstimate Archived 2008-03-16 at the Wayback Machine American Heritage Dictionary


  6. ^ Compact Oxford English Dictionary guesstimate


  7. ^ "Guesstimate with confidence using confidence intervals" from back cover of Statistics for Dummies


  8. ^ Guesstimate; Grades 4-6 NTTI Lesson Plan


  9. ^ Guesstimation: Solving the World's Problems on the Back of a Cocktail Napkin, Tony Mann, Times Higher Education Supplement


  10. ^ The Drake Equation WeAreNotAlone.net


  11. ^ Economic outlooks often rely on guesstimation, M. Ray Perryman, San Antonio Business Journal


  12. ^ Weinstein & Adam (2008) Problem 5.1


  13. ^ Weinstein & Adam (2008) Problem 10.5




Sources



  • Weinstein, Lawrence; Adam, John A. (2008). Guesstimation: Solving the World's Problems on the Back of a Cocktail Napkin. Princeton University Press. ISBN 978-0-691-12949-5..mw-parser-output cite.citation{font-style:inherit}.mw-parser-output .citation q{quotes:"""""""'""'"}.mw-parser-output .citation .cs1-lock-free a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/65/Lock-green.svg/9px-Lock-green.svg.png")no-repeat;background-position:right .1em center}.mw-parser-output .citation .cs1-lock-limited a,.mw-parser-output .citation .cs1-lock-registration a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d6/Lock-gray-alt-2.svg/9px-Lock-gray-alt-2.svg.png")no-repeat;background-position:right .1em center}.mw-parser-output .citation .cs1-lock-subscription a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/aa/Lock-red-alt-2.svg/9px-Lock-red-alt-2.svg.png")no-repeat;background-position:right .1em center}.mw-parser-output .cs1-subscription,.mw-parser-output .cs1-registration{color:#555}.mw-parser-output .cs1-subscription span,.mw-parser-output .cs1-registration span{border-bottom:1px dotted;cursor:help}.mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/4c/Wikisource-logo.svg/12px-Wikisource-logo.svg.png")no-repeat;background-position:right .1em center}.mw-parser-output code.cs1-code{color:inherit;background:inherit;border:inherit;padding:inherit}.mw-parser-output .cs1-hidden-error{display:none;font-size:100%}.mw-parser-output .cs1-visible-error{font-size:100%}.mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{display:none;color:#33aa33;margin-left:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-subscription,.mw-parser-output .cs1-registration,.mw-parser-output .cs1-format{font-size:95%}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-left,.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-wl-left{padding-left:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-right,.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-wl-right{padding-right:0.2em}



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