德尔菲法




德尔菲法（Delphi method）是一种结构化的决策支持技术，它的目的是在信息收集过程中，通过多位专家的独立的反复主观判断，获得相对客观的信息、意见和见解。


调查组通过匿名方式对选定专家组进行多轮意见徵询。调查组对每一轮的专家意见进行汇总整理，并将整理过的材料再寄给每位专家，供专家们分析判断，专家在整理后材料的基础上提出新的论证意见。如此多次反复，意见逐步趋于一致，得到一个比较一致的并且可靠性较大的结论或方案。


德尔菲法的要点是：被征询意见的专家采用匿名发表意见，专家之间不可互相讨论，不发生横向联系。从而避免专家意见向少数影响大的专家意见趋同。



参考文献



  • 施侣元主编，《流行病学词典》，第一版，科学出版社，北京，2001，第45页~第46页，ISBN 7-03-009553-7


外部链接


(1)The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications, edited by Harold A. Linstone and Murray Turoff — a comprehensive book on Delphi method (free download, 11Mb PDF, 618 pages)


(2)德尔菲法的基本概念


(3)德尔菲法的基本步骤










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